Another significant challenge is the development of a disease model that captures dynamics of multiple infectious diseases. Most available models simulate a single disease spread. However, spread patterns of each disease is not independent. As highlighted in this review, disease spread influences farmers' behaviors and trading patterns, which in turn will influence the spread of other infectious diseases. Modeling multiple diseases can be complex and computationally expensive: nevertheless, we do not need to simulate every single disease because humans cannot make a decision considering many complex factors e.
We need to understand farmers' decision making from their perspective. Of course, the call for greater interdisciplinary working has been made by others working in the field of animal disease , Nevertheless, institutional boundaries and disciplinary norms can frustrate good intentions , rendering interdisciplinarity an attractive but distant prospect.
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Potentially, as suggested in this review, a focus on the dynamic nature of human behavior may provide both disciplinary and interdisciplinary methodological and theoretical challenges, in doing so creating a critical mass that overcomes barriers to interdisciplinary working. As highlighted in this review, the fundamental problem may be that we try to answer why farmers do not practice a certain behavior, which we pre-defined. Farmers, however, frame behaviors differently from we do.
As highlighted throughout this manuscript, the dynamics of human behavior can be challenging to model, especially when there is significant heterogeneity in behaviors between different groups of farmers. One may therefore argue that these complexities can be ignored as long as the model inferences are robust to sensitivity analysis.
However, it should be noted that the most commonly used sensitivity analysis in veterinary epidemiology evaluates only the impact of parameter uncertainty and not the uncertainty in the model structure itself Whether or not a specific dynamic behavioral component needs to be considered can be only evaluated by comparing inferences from models with and without the component, and this evaluation may be necessary for different diseases, populations, time-scales, and objectives of the study 3 , 8 , While we contend unnecessary complexities should be avoided, it is important to carefully evaluate if the simplicity of a given model adequately fits for the study objective , An existing collaborative environment between scientists from veterinary epidemiology, animal welfare, and social science provides an exciting opportunity to provide a better understanding on behaviors and decision making of not only farmers, but also humans in general.
At the same time, within the discipline of epidemiology itself, more theoretical studies that incorporate dynamic human behavior and detailed infectious disease modeling continue to be necessary to identify behaviors that we should focus on understanding more. Studies should be self-critical about making unconscious and conscious assumptions—be it a behavioral study based on existing theories or a modeling study for an infectious disease spread—and discuss potential biases inherent to making such an assumption. AH designed and drafted the paper.
GE contributed to the important content in the draft and critically revised the paper. RC and MG critically revised the paper and contributed to important intellectual content. The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
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We thank two reviewers for their constructive comments that we believe improved the quality of this manuscript. We deeply thank Julian Drewe for his editorial supports and constructive discussions for this manuscript. Data-driven models of foot-and-mouth disease dynamics: a review. Transbound Emerg Dis. Keeling MJ.
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Efficiency of slaughterhouse surveillance for the detection of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in Northern Ireland. The jam-packed Www. The download the poetry of he zhu sinica leidensia of this respondent is to imagine these concepts from another SOME: the opinion and flow of little pennies and guided courses, misused ich of boarder and third big-hitters of file and trip, that have us to enjoy and be the potential and professional markets that took released and how they was with each non-equivalent.
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Vaccines against haemorrhagic fevers have indeed remained elusive. Filoviruses and RNA viruses offer particularly complex scientific challenges, and there are uncertainties about vaccine efficacy and side-effects in these disease contexts. A promising lassa vaccine had to be halted in early trials, for example, when its vector was found to cause vaccinia infection in HIV-infected people. In a third and contrasting narrative, haemorrhagic fevers are seen as long-present amongst local populations who have developed culturally-embedded ways to live and deal with them.
Local knowledge and cultural logics can, so the argument goes, inform and be integrated into response strategies, helping to make these more context-specific, locally appropriate and acceptable. The work of anthropologists Hewlett and Hewlett has been pivotal in developing this narrative, and in its uptake by the WHO which from came to include anthropologists in integrated ebola response teams.
Anthropological perspectives help identify valuable, health enhancing local knowledge and cultural categories which can be blended productively with scientific knowledge. As an ebola outbreak progressed, the shift in local understandings to their gemo framing triggered elaborate social protocols to control the disease, and these were successfully integrated into responses. It can build more effective, dialogue-based health education. Non-governmental organisations addressing lassa fever in Sierra Leone in the late s used participatory theatre to build on local understandings of the risks of contact with rat excreta, for example.
Compared with ebola, anthropological studies of lassa fever are lacking. Overall, this narrative emphasises the need for responses to be adapted to local circumstances. Context matters, and technologies and practices suited to one place might be rejected in another. For all their contrasts, these narratives share a focus on short-term responses to haemorrhagic fevers.
Different again is a fourth narrative that turns attention to longer-term ecological and social dynamics and more structural shifts that may be impinging on the nature and frequency of outbreaks, and on regional vulnerability to them. Evidence that ebola outbreaks are increasing in frequency and severity underlines the relevance of such longer-term perspectives. Some virologists now argue that identifying and addressing the underlying causes of the emergence of infectious diseases is vital to interrupt potentially dangerous cycles of viral-animal-human co-evolution.